Megatrends by John Naisbitt
Free Book Summary

Introduction

Megatrends: Ten New Directions Transforming Our Lives was published in 1982, way before the technology revolution and the Internet era. Naisbitt anticipated several key social and business factors such as globalization, empowerment and the rise of information technology. It is an excellent read as background to its contemporary companion, Microtrends by Mark Penn.

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Executive Summary

In Megatrends, John Naisbitt held that we have changed to an economy based on the creation and distribution of information, in which speed is an important competitive weapon. Written back in 1982, Naisbitt already acknowledged that we were all part of a global economy. In such a global economy, the bigger the world is, the more powerful its smallest player is – and hence the rise in power of small businesses. Empowerment, with individual responsibility, has become more important for each person within an organization, who by achieving results from the bottom up, can beat any big bureaucratic organization.

Complete Book Summary

The Information Economy. Despite the fact that we still think we live in an industrial society, we have in fact turned into an economy based on the creation and distribution of information. The 1980s were a period of transformation from traditional issues like production methods, to the possibilities of information exchange.

Technology and the Human Scale. The trend is in dual directions – high tech and high touch, matching each new innovative technology with a compensatory human response. Heart transplants led to new interest in neighborhood clinics and family doctors. Jet flights resulted in more face-to-face meetings.

High touch is about getting back to the human scale, and the change is local and bottom up. Keeping track of local events, one can recognize the shifting patterns.

You can’t stop technological progress, but you can also hardly go wrong with a high touch response. For example, FedEx developed high reliability and efficiency based on modern electronics, but its success is built on a form of high touch hand delivery.

The Emergence of a Global Economy. We are no longer operating within a self sufficient, isolated, national economic system. We must acknowledge that we are part of a global economy. However, the bigger the world economy is, its smallest player is more powerful.

Longer Time Frames. Our society is moving away from short-term considerations and rewards towards dealing with things in much longer term time frames.

The Growth or Empowerment. In all types and sizes of organizations, we have rediscovered the ability to act innovatively and to achieve results from bottom up. Empowerment that goes with responsibility needs to be spread more evenly throughout organizations and replace the narrow focus on a small group of managers.

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Self Reliance. Self reliance replaces gradually institutional help in all aspects of life.

Changing Framework of Democracy. The framework of representative democracy has become obsolete in a new era of instantaneously shared information.

Hierarchy is Replaced by Informal Networks. More and more, and especially in the business community, we prefer informal networks to the older form of dependence on hierarchical structures.

Favoring informal networks is a major trend as they flourish in a variety of ways – with suppliers, between competitors, internally, and globally. Thanks to technology, networks can grow today in ways that we could never have imagined. As a result, when everyone hears about everything at the same time, everyone gets to be equally well informed.

Speed is a Competitive Weapon. Speed has become a crucial competitive weapon. Economies of scale are giving way to economies of scope, finding the right size for synergy, flexibility and speed.

More Choice. Our society is growing from a narrow either/or society with limited range of personal choices, to a freewheeling society with multiple options to all.

The Power of Small Businesses. Small businesses are going to be even more important with a strong part of in generating the wealth of the future. Any small company, and even any individual, can beat the big bureaucratic companies. Unless big organizations rebuild themselves as a collection of small companies, they will simply go out of business. The global economy is created by the small businesses.

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Context

Megatrends predicted the global economy way before it was here and foreseen the explosion of informal networks when the Internet was not around, not to mention LinkedIn or Facebook. This is a milestone in modern business and social thinking and a must read for anyone exploring Microtrends by Mark Penn.

The Complete Book

Naisbitt, John. Megatrends (New York, Warner Books, 1982).





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